A few days ago, President Donald Trump warned of a “1929-style Depression…if the Democrats get in.”
Trump is, of course, referring to November’s midterm elections. And throwing hearty rhetoric at the wall - hoping it sticks for electoral effect.
Just as he did with his bribe - oops, I mean offer - to pay everyone $5,000 should Republicans (miraculously) maintain control of Congress.
I added “miraculously” - because the US (and global) economy are awful. And off-year elections for the President’s party aren’t much fun under the best of circumstances. The US’s (and the planet’s) awful economy? Are not the best of circumstances.
I said President Trump is “partly” right about the looming Depression? Because I think it happens whether or not the Democrats take control of DC in November. Gird your loins.
The President hasn’t helped matters with his Iran war. Which has broken the global energy system. And with it the global economy.
Also unhelpful was his Big Broke - oops, I mean “Beautiful” - Bill. It has added trillions of dollars more to the US deficits and debt than the last President Joe Biden-Democrat Continuing Resolution (CR). Not very reductive of him.
Regardless, the Depression that’s about to happen? Would be happening if President Trump had never happened.
Which is an ironic reversal. Considering we elected him because he said he would stop the spending and wars - and hopefully with it the Depression we all have long sensed is coming.
What’s contributing to this foreboding?
Well, $40+ trillion in US government debt is no joke. Trump I was responsible for $7.8 trillion of it. Trump II is already responsible for about $4 trillion. 30% of the total is no joke.
Trump walked into a DC that was already well into the ever-accelerating spend-borrow doom loop. We elected him to reverse it. Instead, he embraced it. And rapidly accelerated it.
The ever-skyrocketing debt increasingly crowds out the private economy. You can’t get a loan for your small business? Because the government is borrowing $3+ trillion per annum for new spending - and interest on old spending.
And what money the government isn’t borrowing? The Artificial Intelligence (AI) bubble is borrowing.
And I do mean “bubble.” The total AI round-robin of fiscal insanity thus far is about $3.5 trillion. Estimated to be about $5 trillion by 2028.
Except AI total revenue is only $100-$200 billion per annum. It would need to get to $1.2-$1.5 trillion by 2030 - just to service the existing debt.
NO ONE sees that happening. Hence the use of the word “bubble.”
Venture capitalist Tomasz Tunguz estimates that in the next five years another $4 trillion will be in the AI lending pipeline.
I think sometime very much sooner than five years? The AI lending pipeline closes nigh entirely. Because that math ain’t math-ing.
Speaking of being unable to borrow? The US government’s bond market crisis continues to worsen. (So too for most of the rest of the planet.) Translation: No one wants to buy US debt.
Which means the US has to incessantly raise interest rates to entice these reluctant purchasers. Small problem: That raises the interest rates the US pays on its existing debt.
Which makes our debt even less attractive to prospective purchasers. Which forces US to further raise bond interest rates. Which…. Lather, rinse, repeat…. Debt death spiral, anyone?
Meanwhile, despite all of this reality piling up? The bizarre emporiums that are the US stock markets continue to tilt at record highs.
But, of course, that’s also a part of the AI bubble. 62% of the market’s market caps are either AI or AI-adjacent.
Meanwhile, almost 80% of S&P stocks are down. For Wall Street - it’s AI or Bust.
Meanwhile, the US economy for us non-Big Tech-Wall Streeters is already bust. We the Broke hold a record $18.8 trillion in total household debt. And, as discussed, the interest rates on all of that debt is rocketing skyward.
So too are prices. The government’s alleged inflation rate is 3.4%. But with the Iran war inflating fuel - which inflates nigh everything? Inflation certainly feels higher - and will definitely get higher.
Meanwhile: “(A)verage real wages for non‑management private‑sector workers have barely changed in real terms over the past four decades.”
So We the Broke are spending a whole lot more - while not making any more at all. For decades.
Oh: By contrast: “CEO pay has grown 1,316% since 1978.” That seems fair.
I would argue there are other portions of the economy also teed up to collapse. But let’s just stick with the three-legged-stool we have just constructed.
You have the US debt. Which is titanic. And which the US is finding increasingly difficult and expensive to finance.
You have the AI bubble. Which has been falsely, unilaterally propping up Wall Street. And is on the verge of finding it nigh impossible to continue to fuel the debt furnaces.
And you have the Iran war. Which has further exacerbated Main Street’s massive economic problems.
So Main Street continues to implode. While we all wait for Wall Street and the government to implode.
So again, Trump’s partly right: There is a Depression a-coming.
But the ridiculousness that is US electoral politics?
No longer has anything to do with it.